August adoption may have been delayed due to delta variants

Economists predict that employers added 750,000 jobs in August, much less than in both June and July.

Washington — A series of strong employment over the past few months may have slowed in August, when the spread of the Delta variant discouraged some Americans from flying, shopping, and eating out.

According to data provider FactSet, economists predict that employers added 750,000 jobs in August.It represents a considerable profit, but is roughly below 940,000 jobs added in both June and July. Some analysts are more pessimistic and expect employment growth of less than 500,000.

But even many of those economists expect employment slowdowns to be short-lived. They say employers are still struggling to fill their jobs to meet growing consumer demand, The highest number of openings ever. The unemployment rate is projected to drop from 5.4% in July to 5.2% in August.

The government will issue a job report on Friday at 8:30 EST.

The latest numbers should provide some clues as to how strong recruitment will be for the rest of the year. A few months ago, many economists, along with Federal Reserve Board of Governors and White House officials, set a time for September and the months that followed to consistently return to a strong state from a short but severe pandemic recession. I was looking forward to it. ..

There was their hope that as vaccination became more widespread, more and more people would be eager to get a job as the risk of viral infection diminished. Schools and child care centers will be reopened, allowing more parents, especially women, to start looking for jobs.And with a $ 300 weekly federal unemployment supplement Set to expire next week, Federal Reserve Board Chairman Jerome Powell and others speculated that many of the unemployed would be looking for a job.

All these trends help more companies fill more positions and mitigate complaints from companies about chronic labor shortages.

But now the epidemic of delta variants of the virus casts doubt on some of those expectations. Due to the surge in COVID cases in July and August, Americans are reducing their flight ticket purchases and hotel stays. After a full recovery in late June, restaurant meals were about 10% below pre-pandemic levels.

Several live shows including The rest of the concert on the country star Garth Brooks tour, was canceled. Companies are delaying their return to the office, threatening the survival of downtown restaurants, coffee shops and dry cleaners.

According to some academic studies, the abolition of the $ 300 weekly federal unemployment allowance in 25 states has not significantly increased the number of Americans seeking work. It suggests that companies will continue to struggle to find workers at the wages they are willing to pay for the next few months.

There are signs that many companies, especially those that do not belong to the public service industry, such as restaurants and bars, are still considering hiring. According to Indeed, the job listing website Indeed, the number of jobs available increased in August, especially in areas such as information technology and finance where many employees can work from home.

Wal-Mart announces Hire 20,000 people this week Expand supply chain and online shopping operations, including the work of order processors, drivers and managers.Amazon Said on wednesday We aim to fill 40,000 jobs in the United States, primarily technology and hourly positions.And Fidelity Investments Said to add 9,000 on Tuesday Work including customer service and IT.

In contrast, many manufacturers still suffer from supply bottlenecks. According to a survey by purchasing managers Factory production expanded last month Many companies complained that shortages of semiconductors and other components and delays in shipping increased costs and restricted production.

Studies show that Delta Variant has caused absenteeism in many factories, delaying factory employment as some manufacturers are unable to find enough workers.

Supply shortages also spurred inflation to surge, with consumer prices rising the most in July in 30 years, according to Fed-recommended measures. Increasing inflationary pressures, in turn, have contributed to a sharp decline in consumer confidence.

Still, consumers as a whole have accumulated significant savings built out of stimulus checks, stock market profits, and limited money opportunities during a pandemic. Many economists hope that these expanded savings will drive more spending in the coming months.

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